Forecasting Financial Crisis Leading Indicators with the Probit Model: An Assessment on Turkey
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https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7497557Keywords:
Financial Crises, Crisis Leading Indicators, Probit ModelAbstract
The increase in the number and severity of financial crises has led to the need to predict crises; accordingly, it has increased the interest in the subject. Of course, predicting financial crises is a process that requires a lot of effort. However, past financial crises have shown two things: first, to improve economic forecasting indicators, and second, to be able to develop early warning systems that work well for economic crises. In this context, crisis leading indicators are an extremely useful tool to prevent major destructions in the economy and to help policy makers more effective decisions and prevent greater losses. The aim of the study created with in the scope of this requirement is to determine the crisis leading indicators for Turkey's 1992:01-2019:12 period with the probit model method. According to the final model created; there is a statistically significant relationship between the variables of current account balance, overnight borrowing interest rate, Central Bank reserves, composite leading indicators, foreign trade balance, stock price index, inflation rate and dependent variable.
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