Şokların Enflasyon Üzerinde Kalıcı Etkisinin Olup Olmadığına İlişkin Bir İnceleme: Danimarka, İsveç ve Norveç Örneği
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DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10444377Anahtar Kelimeler:
Birim Kök, Enflasyon, ŞoklarÖzet
Bu çalışmanın amacı Danimarka, İsveç ve Norveç için ayrı ayrı hesaplanan enflasyon serisinin şoklardan kalıcı olarak etkilenip etkilenmediğini ortaya koymaktır. Veri mevcudiyetine bağlı olarak analiz dönemi Danimarka için 1968–2022 dönemini, İsveç için 1956–2022 dönemini ve Norveç için 1951–2022 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada yıllık enflasyon verileri dikkate alınmıştır. Yıllık enflasyon verilerinin tercih edilmesinin nedeni mevsimsel etkilerden kaçınmaktır. Norveç’e ait enflasyon verileri için Dickey ve Fuller (1979) tarafından önerilen birim kök testinin sonucu dikkate alınmıştır. İsveç’e ait enflasyon verileri için Carrion-i-Silvestre ve Sansó (2007) tarafından önerilen durağanlık testinin sonucu dikkate alınmıştır. Danimarka’ya ait enflasyon verilerine Kapetanios vd. (2003) tarafından önerilen birim kök testi, Kruse (2011) tarafından tavsiye edilen birim kök testi ve Güriş ve Güriş (2022) tarafından önerilen birim kök testi uygulanmıştır. Ampirik analiz neticesinde Danimarka ve Norveç için ayrı ayrı hesaplanan enflasyon serisinin şoklardan kalıcı olarak etkilenmediği (birim kök içermediği) söylenebilir. Yapısal kırılmaların dikkate alınması durumunda İsveç’e ait enflasyon serisinin de birim kök içermediği belirtilebilir. Elde edilen bulgulara dayalı olarak Danimarka’da, İsveç’te ve Norveç’te enflasyona yönelik küçük şokların etkisini düşürmeye dönük müdahalelerde bulunulmaması önerilmektedir.
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